The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center now has probabilistic winter precipitation guidance. You can get maps showing
- the
th percentile of the predicted distribution of accumulation for
;
- dually to that, contours on which the 10th, 20th, …, 90th percentile of the predicted distribution is a selected constant
for the next 72 hours, or for 24- or 48-hour subsets of that time period. Here’s a more in-depth description.
Looks like the mid-Atlantic is in for a rough ride. Stay home. Have some French toast. If you do go outside, ignore the wind chill.
