Links for October 19

John Cook spoke at KeenCon on Bayesian statistics as a way to integrate intuition and data.

A fantasy sports wizard’s winning formula, from Brad Reagan at the Wall Street Journal. Via Hacker News.

From Dan Egan of Betterment, It’s About Time in the Market, Not Market Timing, an analysis of the distribution of returns based on investment period.

Sarah Fallon at Wired:
This Man’s Simple System Could Transform American Medicine
. The man is David Newman, professor of emergency medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital, and the system is based on the number needed to treat (i. e. how many patients do you have to treat to have one positive outcome?)

A talk from Jake Porway of DataKind on using data for good, and Defending microfinance with data science by Everett Wechtler at Bayes Impact.

Jordan Ellenberg, author of How Not to Be Wrong, speaks to students in Education as Self-Fashioning at Stanford University on 10-10-14.

Tom Siegfried on the top ten unsung geniuses of science and math, at Nautilus.

Michael Byrne at Motherboard on a model that has predicted the Ebola outbreak, following An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number by David N. Fisman, Tanya S. Hauck, Ashleigh R. Tuite, and Amy L. Greer. Also in Ebola news, let’s do some math on Ebola before we start quarantining people, on the old question of false positive rates in medical tests.

Tyler L Hobbs on probability distributions for algorithmic artists and randomness in the composition of artowrk.

The MAA has released some long-lost Martin Gardner footage.

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