Saw a “statistic” during game 3 of the World Series yesterday – teams that have won Game 3 have gone on to win 68 times out of 98 (69%).
First of all, 98 is a strange denominator there… that would be “since 1923”, but the first World Series was played in 1903! But 1922 was the last time there was a tied game in a World Series, so is this presumably 1923 through 2021 (99 years) with the exception of 1994?You can find this statistic in, for example, this CBS Sports item or this tweet from @MLB:
Who's taking the series lead?— MLB (@MLB) November 1, 2022
In best-of-seven postseason series that are tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series on 68 of 98 occasions. #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/KOkwRV9kxN
Okay, turns out I misheard it – it’s the winner of all Game Threes in best-of-seven MLB postseason series when the first two games were split 1-1.
So is this surprising? Not really… the winner of such a Game Three has to win at least two out of the next four to win the series. If games are coin flips, that happens 11/16 of time (69%). Game Three doesn’t have some special magic… it’s just the a 2-1 lead is substantial.
This post should be going out at the first pitch of Game 4. Go Phillies!